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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior coaching or merely the biggest upset.

However the current race is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent strugglers rising in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a wild and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current is not a typical year!

Where his case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still