A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
